Jim Olsztynski 0000-00-00 00:00:00
<b>Analyst: Bright Outlook For PVF</b> Industrial trends have tended to outperform consumer related trends and more people expect industrial to drive us out of the recession, according to Michael Halloran, CFA, senior industrial analyst, Robert W. Baird & Co. He spoke at an ASA educational session, "Thrive in the PVF Industry: An Analysis of End-User Markets for Industrial PVF Segments" at NetworkASA 2010: THRIVE in Chicago Oct. 13. He noted that industrial production is a lagging indicator, but a good indication of where things have been. Halloran said his firm projects accelerating growth through 2011 but it will be single-digit growth. No secondary recession or double dip is anticipated, he added. Residential construction will gradually head upward off the bottom. Healthy growth in housing starts, closer to 1.2 million or higher, is not expected until 2014 or beyond. Non-residential construction has performed a little better than projected, Halloran said. The length of a typical nonresidential recession is four to five quarters. This recession has lasted about eight quarters and may remain down another two to four quarters. Oil and gas are in the early stages of recovery. Core maintenance and repair has picked up. Large project activity is still pretty stagnant, he said. Chemical processing is very cyclical and struggling to right size. Like oil and gas, it will do better longer term vs. short term and international will be stronger than domestic. Although there is great uncertainty about 2011, people are generally expecting growth. On the inventory side, distributors seem less willing to push capital into the market and have been able to manage business on leaner inventory levels. Manufacturing activity has reached a sustainable rate and stocks are performing better than expected, he said. Here are some additional highlights from his presentation: . The U.S. recession ended in June 2009. . U.S. industrial production growth turned positive year-over-year in March, accelerated through May, and it grew 5.8% in the second quarter. . Expect decelerating growth throughout the second half of 2010. . Global industrial production growth turned positive in January, accelerated through May. . Global industrial production exceeded 10% in the second quarter but growth is decelerating. . The Institute for Supply Management Purchasing Managers Index has been above 50 for the past year. . Banks are loosening lending standards. . A steep yield curve is a jump-start for the next cycle. . U.S. industrial production is the lagging indicator and confirmation the cyclical recovery is underway. . Oil/gas and general industrial are on a positive trajectory; power, municipal water/waste water and chemical are neutral; and both commercial and residential construction are still weak. . Housing starts of 598,000 were up 25% from the April 2009 trough, but down 74% from peak. . The consensus forecast calls for significant growth year-over year in 2011/2012, but on a low base. . The inventory of unsold homes must come down further before new construction can take off. . In terms of residential remodeling, renovation spending fell sharply in the downturn, but likely has bottomed - growth is expected to resume in 2011. . ABI Index, a leading indicator for non-residential construction activity, remains below 50 but is gradually improving and there are signals that a bottom in activity is close. . Year-over-year growth in non-residential construction is unlikely until the second half of 2011. . Private non-residential construction spending is nearing a bottom, though still down 24% year-over-year in August. For more information on Robert W. Baird & Co., visit www.rwbaird.com. Text and photo on this page by Pat Lenius (firstname.lastname@example.org). <b>Index Shows Industrial Sector "On Fire"</b> Thomas Net's newest Industry Market Barometer (IMB) shows North America's industrial/manufacturing sector surging forward, accelerating the momentum of its recovery with the promise of further expansion to come. Several key indicators all demonstrate a sector that's "caught on fire"-taking into account more company growth, fewer business declines, a resumption of hiring, a winding down of layoffs, and new investments. <b>Flow serve To Expand Raleigh Plant</b> Flowserve announced plans to expand its manufacturing facility in Raleigh, NC, to accommodate larger nuclear valves. The latest nuclear plant designs incorporate valves weighing as much as 67,000 pounds and standing more than 20 feet tall. Flowserve will add approximately 16,000 square feet of manufacturing space to the existing Raleigh facility to allow for the installation of new machine tools to more efficiently manufacture large valve components, as well as increase space for inspection, assembly and test. <b>Outokumpu Emphasizes Special Stainless Grades</b> "Outokumpu's efforts to develop the market for duplex and other special grades will be accelerated," said CEO Juha Rantanen at a Capital Markets Day presentation in London September 22. He also noted that "the long-term growth in demand for stainless steel is supported by several global trends - urbanization and need for clean energy and water - which makes this a fascinating business." <b>Weld bend Dazzles With Ipd Breakfast</b> Weld bend went "over the top" in sponsoring a breakfast on behalf of ASA's Industrial Piping Division at Network ASA 2010: THRIVE in Chicago. After dining like royalty on lavish made-to-order provisions and enjoying football-themed music by a talented local band, attendees were enraptured by a talk given by NFL football legend Mike Ditka. Later, they enjoyed an inspirational speech by Dr. Donald R. McNeeley, president and chief operating officer of Chicago Tube & Iron Corp., in accepting the IPD Award of Excellence.McNeeley was recognized for his significant contributions to the PVF industry and ASA as an industrialist, economist, executive and professor. In other news, IPD Chairman Pat Adams announced that Jeffrey Beall, CEO of American Pipe & Supply (Birmingham, AL) had been elected vice chairman and will succeed Adams when his two-year term expires next year. Breakfast guests received a limited-edition hard-bound Weldbend catalog and commemoration book. <b>Valve Expo Coming To U.S.</b> The first staging of Valve World Expo Americas will be held from June 21- 22, 2011, in the Woodlands Waterways Marriott Hotel & Convention Center near Houston. This conference with an exhibition component will be a collaboration between Messe Düsseldorf and KCI Publishing, both already cooperating for the Valve World Expo held in Düsseldorf, Germany every two years. For information on exhibiting at Valve World Expo Americas 2011, contact Messe Düsseldorf North America. For information about attending the conference, contact Christian Borrmann at KCI Publishing.
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